Washington — President-elect Obama says he intends to
implement many initiatives to strengthen the American economy,
change the way the United States fights terrorism and curb
global climate change. But he will need to work with Congress
to make his proposals a reality.
When Obama takes the oath of office January 20, 2009, the
United States will be entering a relatively rare period
of “unified government,” in which the White
House, the House of Representatives and the Senate all are
controlled by the same party, in this case the Democrats.
James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional
and Presidential Studies at American University, said presidents
typically have a much easier time getting their proposals
passed during periods of unified government. But Obama still
will face many challenges, Thurber told journalists at the
State Department’s Foreign Press Center in Washington
on December 16.
“Of course, party is very important. But there are
always a few people that will not vote with those in the
Democratic Party and a few people that will not vote with
the Republican Party,” Thurber said.
When it comes to political viewpoints, “most Americans
are in the middle,” Thurber said. But in Congress,
“nobody is in the middle anymore.” Although
that statement might be an exaggeration, moderate Republicans
have suffered major losses in recent years and moderate
Democrats are a minority within their own party.
This means that Obama will have to reach out to politicians
on the far right and far left of the political spectrum
to secure passage of his administration’s legislative
initiatives.
OBAMA AND THE 111th CONGRESS
When the 111th Congress convenes January 6, 2009, the Senate
will have about 57 Democrats and 41 Republicans. A race
in Minnesota remains undecided, and the Illinois seat vacated
by Obama remains unfilled. The House of Representatives
will have about 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans, although
recounts continue in a few races.
There will be changes in the coming weeks as some members
of Congress resign their seats to fill executive posts in
the Obama administration. (See “Louisiana
Republican to Be First Vietnamese American in Congress.”)
Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain was not
nearly as narrow as those in other recent presidential elections.
Many Americans are wondering if that comfortable margin
constitutes a public mandate that will prompt broad support
for the incoming president from other politicians.
“There certainly is a mandate for certain explicit
policies that [Obama] has indicated,” Thurber said.
“One is redeployment [of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan].”
Thurber said one group that might be particularly influential
in the next Congress is the Blue Dog Coalition, a group
of Democrats that tends to be conservative or moderate on
fiscal matters but liberal on social issues. These Democrats
tend to vote as a block. There will be about 55 Blue Dogs
in the next House of Representatives, Thurber said.
“They are key to getting the votes on a variety of
issues … for Obama,” Thurber said.
The White House also will want good relations with the
chairmen of Senate and House committees that review each
piece of proposed legislation before it can be debated and
voted on. Committees frequently hold hearings and interview
experts before recommending whether a bill should be brought
to a vote before the House or Senate.
Those expected to hold powerful committee chairmanships
include Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who is expected
to head the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a panel
formerly chaired by Vice President-elect Joe Biden.
In the House, Henry Waxman of California is the likely
head of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, succeeding
John Dingell, a representative from Michigan. This change
is “major,” Thurber said, because Dingell’s
home state economy relies heavily on automobile industries,
and Dingell has shared the industry’s opposition to
more stringent air pollution control legislation.
“Obama wants to push alternative energy but also
a cap-and-trade bill to reduce [carbon dioxide] and other
pollutants by 80 percent of 1990 levels by 2050,”
Thurber said. “John Dingell stood in the way of that.”
“After the economy and the two wars [Iraq and Afghanistan],
the question of cap and trade … and energy is going
to be a central piece to this administration,” Thurber
said.
Thurber said many of Obama’s proposals and how Congress
approaches legislation to implement them will be driven
by external events. “There will be some changes in
policy. But events drive that to a certain extent.”
Already, economic concerns are driving policy proposals,
Thurber said.
Thurber said Obama is “setting the right tone”
to work with Congress. Thurber said that, as a senator,
Obama understands how the institution works and has staffed
his administration with those who have spent a long time
working in the legislative branch.
“That’s really setting a tone of reaching out,
working with [Congress.]”