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A sign
advertising deep discounts hangs in an Izod
outlet store in New York on November 28. | |
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Washington — Goods and services purchased by Americans
make up one-fifth of the global economy, but the third quarter
of 2008 saw the largest drop in consumer spending since
1980.
As the financial-market turbulence prompts U.S. households
to cut back spending, economies around the globe feel repercussions.
“The U.S. consumer is a voracious consumer of goods
and services,” said Scott Talbott, a senior vice president
at the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents large
financial institutions. “We [are] at the heart of
the recession. That’s why we’re going to have
to be at the heart of the recovery.”
Historically, Americans have spent a greater share of gross
domestic product (GDP) — a measure of a nation’s
economic size — than citizens of other countries have.
Those expenditures translate into jobs and economic growth
around the world.
Over the last 15 years, U.S. household spending climbed
dramatically and savings declined, raising concern among
policy makers and economists that the situation was unsustainable
— even as the world was becoming more dependent on
U.S. pocketbooks.
U.S. consumer spending grew to $9.7 trillion in 2007, a
whopping 70 percent of U.S. GDP, according to the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). That amounts
to 18 percent of the gross world product, which was $54.6
trillion in 2007 according to the CIA’s World Fact
Book.
The problem with the recent dramatic growth in consumer
spending is that people borrowed against their houses, which
were climbing in value by 14 percent each year earlier this
decade. The real estate collapse ended that run of easy
money.
“Two-thirds of that borrowing, at least, came out
of homes,” financial analyst Charles Morris told America.gov.
“It was the number one supporter of consumer spending.
That’s just over now.”
American consumption should probably ratchet back to 63
percent of U.S. GDP, in order for household savings to build
to a healthy level, according to Morris, who authored The
Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and
the Great Credit Crash.
The U.S. economy has been in recession since December 2007,
according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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In Virginia,
shoppers look at cameras in a Circuit City store
on the first shopping day after Thanksgiving,
November 28. | |
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“This will probably be the worst recession in the
post-World War II period,” said Gus Faucher, director
of macroeconomics at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester,
Pennsylvania. “Recessions result from imbalances in
the economy, and then we correct those imbalances and we
come back out. … We are going to see the savings rate
increase as consumers more closely balance their income
and spending.”
At 0.4 percent for 2007, the U.S. savings rate is the lowest
in the world. It compares to 2.9 percent in the United Kingdom,
3.1 percent in Japan, 6.8 percent in Italy, 10.9 percent
in Germany, 12.7 percent in France, 24 percent in China
and 28 percent in India, according to a Financial Services
Roundtable analysis of OECD data.
Americans consume more than citizens of other countries
for a number of reasons.
“It’s partly cultural, but it’s also
a reflection of tax policy,” said David Cross, president
of business consultant Market Outlook. “You have much
higher marginal tax rates in Germany, which discourages
spending. There are issues of how much you can consume given
the size of your home.”
The U.S. government gives a tax deduction for interest
payments on home mortgages, which encourages people to buy
larger houses and fill them with more possessions. The lower
cost of gasoline in the United States boosts car sales,
especially large cars, trucks and sport utility vehicles.
Americans also spend more on medical services than in Europe,
where health care is heavily subsidized, Cross told America.gov.
Moreover, the U.S. market simply contains more products
and services. For instance, the Chinese don’t have
access to insurance products, so they tend to self-insure
— one reason the savings rate is so high.
“Consumer attitudes toward spending and saving are
very difficult to change,” Cross said.
Indeed, U.S. policy makers don’t want consumer spending
to drop too quickly. They want to avoid the kind of economic
stagnation Japan experienced during the 1990s, when people
were overly reluctant to spend.
“This is uncharted territory,” the roundtable’s
Talbott said. “If consumers don’t spend at all,
then we go into a worse recession. … We have to start
saving a little more but continue to spend.”
To that end, the U.S. government in November committed
as much as $800 billion to revitalize the banking system
and encourage loans for education, cars and real estate.
President-elect Barack Obama has set a goal of creating
or preserving 2.5 million jobs over three years, and Democratic
lawmakers are pushing an economic recovery package that
could exceed $500 billion.
At the recent financial summit in Washington, leaders of
the G20 nations agreed to take steps to stimulate consumer
spending in their home countries. The world’s largest
economies plan to work together to stave off a global recession
and to reform the world financial system.