CIA Director Michael Hayden discusses emerging security trends in the 21st century.

Washington -- Experts put the world's population today at about 6.7 billion people, but by mid-century the best estimates point to a world population of more than 9 billion. This growing population will cause a migration of people, legally and illegally, across the globe in search of economic opportunity, security and political freedom.

It also will generate significant regional and global security stresses, says the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

Speaking at the annual Landon Lecture Series at Kansas State University recently, General Michael Hayden said three significant future trends in global affairs have drawn the attention of U.S. intelligence analysts -- a significant increase in population growth by mid-century, the rise of Asia and especially China and the changing context of the U.S.-European strategic alliance.

Hayden said that one of the many responsibilities of an intelligence agency is to peer occasionally into the future and attempt to determine what trends will develop and what they will mean. He adds that these trends do not indicate that the United States is declining in power or global influence.

"To the contrary, the United States will remain an international leader -- a force for peace, freedom, and prosperity throughout the world, an engine of economic growth and innovation, and a military powerhouse whose capabilities are unmatched," he said.

But population migrations at a time of rising global populations will place significant stresses on both the developed and less developed world, he said.

"Most of that [population] growth will occur in countries least able to sustain it, a situation that will likely fuel instability and extremism, both in those areas and beyond," Hayden said. "Many poor, already fragile states -- where governance is difficult today -- will grow rapidly."

For instance, the populations of Afghanistan, Liberia, Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to triple by mid-century, and the number of people in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Yemen will more than double, he said.

"Furthermore, all of those countries will have large concentrations of young people. If their basic freedoms and basic needs -– food, housing, education, employment, and so on -- are not met, they could be easily attracted to violence, civil unrest, or extremism," he said.

And through global migration, the effect of rapid population growth in Africa, Southeast Asia and elsewhere will be felt in the developed world as well, Hayden predicted.

"Receiving countries, of course, have much to gain from an influx of young workers, particularly because populations are aging rapidly in much of the developed world. But social integration of immigrants will pose a significant challenge to many host nations -- again boosting the potential for unrest and extremism," Hayden said.

THE RISE OF ASIA

Hayden said the second 21st-century trend he has been observing is the rise of Asia.

"In a recent [newspaper] op-ed, Henry Kissinger [a former secretary of state and national security adviser to Presidents Nixon and Ford] called this 'a shift in the center of gravity of international affairs from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Indian Oceans,'" Hayden said. The CIA has identified the rise of China and India and the emergence of new economic centers as transformative forces in the changing global picture.

Hayden said that over the next few decades continued economic growth, foreign trade and investment will bring Asian nations closer together, and also give them confidence in international affairs. The relationships among China, India, Japan and emerging powers in the region will be characterized by competition for regional influence, he said, though it is likely China will achieve great-power status during this century.

Hayden conceded that, with issues of real consequence for U.S. national security, there always are differing views about where China is headed. "China is not an inevitable enemy," Hayden said. "There are good policy choices available to both Washington and Beijing that can keep us on the largely peaceful, constructive path we've been on for almost 40 years now."

Even as it has been building up its military in recent decades, China also is deeply concerned with economic development and political stability, Hayden added.

"From the U.S. perspective, China's growing engagement with the rest of the world is driven primarily by two things: a need for access to markets, resources, technology, and expertise, and a desire to assert its influence in the region and with developing countries in other parts of the world," Hayden said.

He added that today China's behavior in the international realm is focused nearly exclusively on narrowly defined Chinese objectives. "Whether China begins to engage the world in ways that are less narrowly focused will greatly influence the U.S.-China relationship in the new century," he said.

EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES

Changes in the relationship between Europe and the United States will define a third key trend that will shape international relations in this century, he said.

Hayden said disagreements over the war in Iraq and the U.S. approach to international terrorism have raised questions about the future of the Atlantic alliance.

"Those disagreements are only symptoms of an underlying shift brought about by the end of the Cold War. It comes down to this: the U.S.-Europe relationship no longer needs to focus primarily on Europe. Today, the continent is nearly whole, free, and at peace," Hayden said.

Now, U.S.-European attention can focus on meeting global threats that affect everyone, he said.

"The truth is, nearly two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, America and Europe still are grappling with how best to manage the security risks of the post-Cold War world. Absent a common unifying threat that overrides all others, differences are cropping up over a host of issues," Hayden said.

One significant issue, Hayden said, is how the United States and Europe perceive terrorism. For the United States, the war on terror is global in scope and requires that the fight be taken to the enemy wherever that leads. For Europe, terrorism is viewed as an internal and law enforcement problem, and solutions are focused more narrowly on securing the homeland, he said.

"Differing views over the nature of threats and the right tactics to address them are likely to impact U.S.-Europe relations for much of this century, and the effects will be felt on many levels -- from intelligence and law enforcement to military cooperation and foreign policy," Hayden said.

A transcript of Hayden's remarks is available on the CIA Web site.